Water Resources Research Act Program

Details for Project ID ID_2025_Dobre

From Rivers to Reservoirs: A Hybrid Physics?Machine Learning Framework to Predict Post-Fire Reservoir Sediment and Water Quality Dynamics

Institute: Idaho
USGS Grant Number:
Year Established: 2025 Start Date: 2026-08-01 End Date: 2029-07-31
Total Federal Funds: $309,631 Total Non-Federal Funds: $309,631

Principal Investigators: Mariana Dobre

Project Summary: Wildfires across the western United States cause ash and soil to accumulate in reservoirs that provide drinking water and fish habitat for millions of people. The result is higher water treatment costs and increased risk to water supply. Reservoir managers lack practical tools to understand which reservoir tributaries will be impacted and how severely. This project will combine satellite observations with proven watershed and reservoir models to predict daily sediment and highlight erosion "hotspot" areas. We will test the tool at three pilot reservoirs, then make the methods, code, and maps publicly available for managers to use. The result is an interactive tool that will help managers target pre-fire forestry actions and manage post-fire water supplies. This project, which aligns with USGS priorities and has the potential to be expanded to cover the entire Pacific Northwest region, will improve drinking water resiliency and reduce costs through smarter, data-driven management.