Water Resources Research Act Program

Details for Project ID NM_2023_Cho

New Mexico Statewide Drought Vulnerability Analysis Under Future Climate Change Scenarios Using a Physically-Based Coupled Model

Institute: New Mexico
Year Established: 2023 Start Date: 2023-09-01 End Date: 2024-08-31
Total Federal Funds: $40,000 Total Non-Federal Funds: $40,000

Principal Investigators: Huidae Cho

Project Summary: We propose to analyze drought vulnerability for New Mexico under future climate change scenarios by creating a statewide physically-based coupled hydrologic model. In New Mexico, snowmelt runoff and groundwater play a critical role as a major source of water supply. However, global warming trends have been reducing precipitation events and accelerating evapotranspiration, effectively decreasing the amount of snowpacks and groundwater recharge. In their 2016 report, the Union of Concerned Scientists argues that the state of New Mexico “needs to prepare for the expected impacts of these climate trends.” Unfortunately, it remains challenging to effectively forecast these water resources at a state level because the scale is too large for certain model structures, and one model structure is not suitable for both surface and subsurface water modeling. In this research, we aim to create a hydrologic model that integrates macro-scale land surface and groundwater models. Coupling these two models will allow us to better analyze future drought conditions by simulating surface and subsurface water interactions more effectively. This project will give stakeholders a better understanding of how climate change will impact droughts in New Mexico in the long term.