Water Resources Research Act Program

Details for Project ID 2020IL361B

Improved flood prediction using adaptive data fusion with quantified uncertainties

Institute: Illinois
Year Established: 2020 Start Date: 1970-01-01 End Date: 1970-01-01
Total Federal Funds: $94,637 Total Non-Federal Funds: $95,840

Principal Investigators: Dr. Maryam Ghadiri

Abstract: The objective of this study is to rigorously account for two sources of uncertainty in flood forecasting. The first is uncertainty associated to the location and intensity of precipitation, the second is uncertainty related to the hydro-geological properties that are ingested into the hydrological model. Our research goals in this work are to investigate (1) how a better quantification of these sources of uncertainty can improve flood estimation in this region, and (2) how the quantified uncertainties can be used to optimize or enhance future data monitoring efforts. In particular, our investigation will be focused on using the National Water Model (NWM) which is developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to combine advanced modeling capabilities, real-time observations (from USGS stream gauges) and precise topographic mapping to produce quantitatively derived high-fidelity