Water Resources Research Act Program

Details for Project ID 2018KS194B

Stochastic Forecasting of Harmful Algae Blooms in Cheney Reservoir

Institute: Kansas
Year Established: 2018 Start Date: 2018-03-01 End Date: 2019-02-28
Total Federal Funds: $14,867 Total Non-Federal Funds: $30,304

Principal Investigators: Aleksey Sheshukov, Trisha Moore

Abstract: Harmful Algae Blooms (HABs) occur worldwide and in many Kansas lakes and reservoirs. Climate change may increase the frequency, duration, and extent of these bloom events. Prediction of HABs and information about potential for exposure is essential for developing environmental management decisions during periods of limited resources and funding. Therefore, the overall goal of this project is to develop probabilistic forecasting of HABs in Cheney Reservoir, a water supply reservoir in South-central Kansas with a history of HAB occurrences, based on collected datasets, watershed studies, and stochastic modeling of algae growth. The specific objectives are as follows: (1) Develop a watershed model that estimates nutrient inflows into the reservoir driven by climate, land use, and management conditions in the watershed, (2) Quantify parametric uncertainty in predictions of HABs using a probabilistic framework and collected USGS dataset, and (3) Develop a stochastic forecasting model for evolution of cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) as impacted by climate variations and intensive agricultural production.