Water Resources Research Act Program

Details for Project ID 2008TX304B

Uncertainty Analysis of Recharge to the Edwards Aquifer using Bayesian Model Averaging Scheme

Institute: Texas
Year Established: 2008 Start Date: 2008-03-01 End Date: 2009-02-28
Total Federal Funds: $4,890 Total Non-Federal Funds: $10,012

Principal Investigators: Champa Joshi, Binayak Mohanty

Abstract: The Edwards Aquifer is one of the most prolific artesian aquifers in the world catering to the water demands of urban and suburban regions of San Antonio. The region also provides shelter to several unique and endangered species. In recent decades, water demands in the region have far exceeded the capacity of this aquifer. As such, there are increasing concerns about the welfare of the endangered species and regional economies thriving on this aquifer. Better understanding of the Edwards Aquifer and its limitations is therefore, needed to plan sustainable management of this resource. Appropriate estimation of recharge will prove beneficial in planning BMPs to meet the ever-growing water demands. But a lot of uncertainties are involved in quantifying the exact recharge entering the aquifer. These uncertainties arise due to factors such as, parameter, input data, and model structural uncertainty. Currently, HSPF model is widely used to compute the recharge. But every model has its own strength and weakness. The present study, therefore, endeavors to explore the possibility of using other hydrologic models to estimate recharge and evaluate associated uncertainties in the study region. A multi-model combination using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme is expected to further improve the predictions by better addressing the model structural uncertainty.