National Research Program

Mathematical Simulation of Subsurface-Water Flow Using Uncertain and Incomplete Data

Satisfactory formulations and solutions of equations approximately describing (1) movement of fluids and components contained in fluids through consolidated and unconsolidated rocks, and (2) interactions of the fluids and rocks accompanying fluid movement, are needed for proper understanding and management of ground-water resources. Such formulations and solutions of equations that apply for general field situations where the flow system is complex and hydrologic data are inexact are not, in general, available. Project objectives are to: (1) reformulate where necessary, the equations describing the flow of fluids through porous or fractured rock to include stochastic processes, emphasizing equations that are suitable for field use; (2) derive methods to solve for dependent variables and estimate parameters in the equations; (3) derive methods to assess the uncertainty of both the results computed using the model formed by the basic equations and the parameters estimated for the model; and (4) derive methods to assess the predictive capability of the model.


Cooley, R.L., and Christensen, S., 2006, Bias and uncertainty in regression-calibrated models of groundwater flow in heterogeneous media: Advances in Water Resources, v. 29, no. 5, p. 639-656. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Cooley, R.L., 2004, a theory for modeling ground-water flow in heterogeneous media: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1679, 220 p. (link to view on-line publication as .DJVU or as a group of images)

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