PROJECT ALERT NOTICE (CA) CA plans for TS Rachel

Date: Fri, 09 Oct 2026 10:52:03 EDT

Summary: Rachel due to strike extreme SW California Saturday night.

While all eyes are on Isaias, and with good reason, California is also looking at the prospect of some tropical moisture flowing in off of the Pacific via the remnants of Hurricane Rachel.
The storm is currently focused to come ashore a bit south of Ensenada, MX as a tropical storm with winds between 40-70 MPH. The trajectory is then forecast to swing NE entering the US in the Imperial Valley, CA and move slowly out of the state into Arizona by Sunday evening.
Rainfall is expected to be light in Imperial County with predictions of less than 1/4 inch. However, that could change if the storm stalls. Rainfall predictions for San Diego County are a bit higher due to orographic lift over the Coastal Range (CR) with the crest at Mt Laguna forecast to receive appx. 0.75 inch. This could trigger some flash flooding and debris flows on the Eastern scarp of the CR.
Given the current speed and direction of the storm, and the extremely dry ambient conditions we do not expect to experience much in the way of runoff/flooding as a result. However, teams from our Poway FO are standing by should things change. Unless that happens there will be no update to this notification.