Mapping time-dependent changes in the probability that debris flows will occur during a rain storm -- a method-development study using data from the San Francisco Bay region.


Date: Thu, 14 Mar 1996 10:43:42 -0500
From: jwjones@resdgw32.er.usgs.GOV (John W. Jones)
Message-Id: <9603141543.AA00817@resdgw32.er.usgs.gov>
To: "USGS Employees at Headquarters"<@gs_hq>
Subject: Fortnightly Research Seminar

To: All, Reston, USGS, Employees

From:		Lee De Cola, John W. Jones

Subject:	Fortnightly Research Seminar

Topic: Mapping time-dependent changes in the probability that debris flows
       will occur during a rain storm -- a method-development study using
       data from the San Francisco Bay region.

Speaker: Russell H. Campbell

Russell, from the Geologic Division, will detail work he, Richard Bernknopf,
and David Soller have been conducting in the modeling of landslide processes.
They apply a "time-dependent statistical hazard function", derived from site
studies, to forecast the probability that a debris flow will be initiated 
in an area after a specified duration of heavy rainfall. The results of this
model are calculated and displayed using GIS. The resultant maps illustrate
the different spatial patterns of probabilities at different times during 
the rainstorm.

All are welcome to join us in the discussion of the sophisticated application
of field work, statistics, and GIS technology.

The seminar will be held in Room 2D-308 on Wednesday, March 20 from 10-11 AM.

The entire Fortnightly Research Seminar Schedule may be obtained from:
	ftp://resdgs3.er.usgs.gov/public/mosaic/html/fortnightly.html

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John W. Jones                                email: jwjones@usgs.gov
Research & Applications Group
U.S. Geological Survey                       voicemail: (703) 648-5543     
519 National Center
Reston, VA 22092                             fax: (703) 648-5542
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