Water Resources Research Act Program

Details for Project ID 2009TN61B

Drought Variability in Reconstructed Streamflow

Institute: Tennessee
Year Established: 2009 Start Date: 2009-03-01 End Date: 2011-02-28
Total Federal Funds: $50,000 Total Non-Federal Funds: $102,080

Principal Investigators: Glenn Tootle, Henri Grissino-Mayer

Project Summary: The recent drought in the southeast U.S. (e.g., Lake Lanier, GA) has greatly stressed the water supply and availability of many systems. This has resulted in increased interest in re-evaluating the various agreements and compacts for water deliverability. The proposed two-year research project will use proxy records derived from tree rings to examine climatic controls on streamflow and assess how natural interdecadal variability might impact streamflow. The proposed research will initially review existing tree-ring chronologies in and around watersheds in the State of Tennessee. Next, unimpaired or naturalized streamflow records will be identified for streams of interest. Finally, an investigation of long-term streamflow variability, focusing on extreme events such as mega-droughts, will be performed. This investigation includes evaluating the influence of various atmospheric oceanic influences [e.g., El Niouthern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)] on streamflow. This analysis will also address how large-scale climatic drivers affect the spatial distribution of droughts and the results of the research will be used to develop probabilistic drought forecasts. These forecasts would utilize both empirical probabilities for drought risk derived from the tree-ring record and links between streamflow and climatic drivers like ENSO and the PDO.