State Water Resources Research Institute Program

Project ID: 2008TX304B
Title: Uncertainty Analysis of Recharge to the Edwards Aquifer using Bayesian Model Averaging Scheme
Project Type: Information Management System
Start Date: 3/01/2008
End Date: 2/28/2009
Congressional District: 17
Focus Categories: Groundwater, Models, Water Quantity
Keywords: Edwards Aquifer, Recharge, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme
Principal Investigators: Joshi, Champa; Mohanty, Binayak
Federal Funds: $ 48,90
Non-Federal Matching Funds: $ 10,012
Abstract: The Edwards Aquifer is one of the most prolific artesian aquifers in the world catering to the water demands of urban and suburban regions of San Antonio. The region also provides shelter to several unique and endangered species. In recent decades, water demands in the region have far exceeded the capacity of this aquifer. As such, there are increasing concerns about the welfare of the endangered species and regional economies thriving on this aquifer. Better understanding of the Edwards Aquifer and its limitations is therefore, needed to plan sustainable management of this resource. Appropriate estimation of recharge will prove beneficial in planning BMPs to meet the ever-growing water demands. But a lot of uncertainties are involved in quantifying the exact recharge entering the aquifer. These uncertainties arise due to factors such as, parameter, input data, and model structural uncertainty. Currently, HSPF model is widely used to compute the recharge. But every model has its own strength and weakness. The present study, therefore, endeavors to explore the possibility of using other hydrologic models to estimate recharge and evaluate associated uncertainties in the study region. A multi-model combination using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme is expected to further improve the predictions by better addressing the model structural uncertainty.

Progress/Completion Report, PDF

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