Statistical Analysis of Errors in Hydrologic Models

Uncertainty in application of physically based surface-water hydrologic models is a function of adequacy of the conceptualization of the processes involved and of the quantity and quality of data available to use as input to the model. In any type of modeling exercise, even if the physical processes are well understood, spatial heterogeneities make application of the model on a basin-wide scale problematic, and it is almost always necessary to use some form of spatial averaging to obtain "effective" input variables. The over-all goal of our research is to investigate: (1) Model output errors as a function of model complexity and uncertainty in model input; (2) Derivation of simplified yet physically based models that are appropriate to use with limited data; (3) Ways of evaluating and coping with uncertainty caused by spatial variability of input variables. This project seeks to develop unified approach to analyzing and partitioning errors in hydrologic modeling with particular attention to scale and spatial averaging problems; develop improvements to existing practices; and develop new approaches to managing error levels within the constraints of reduced budgets.

REPORTS PUBLISHED 1999-2008

Gupta, V.K., Troutman, B.M., and Dawdy, D.R., 2007, Towards a nonlinear geophysical theory of floods in river networks: An overview of 20 years of progress, in Tsonis, A. and Elsner, J., eds., 20 Years of Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences: New York, Springer.

Troutman, B.M., 2005, Rainfall, landforms, and streamflow: Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, 2nd edition, New York, John Wiley, doi:10.1002/0471667196.ess5033 .

Troutman, B.M., 2005, Scaling of flow distance in random self-similar channel networks: Fractals - Complex Geometry, Patterns, and Scaling in Nature and Society, v. 13, no. 4, p. 265-282. (on-line abstract)

Troutman, B.M., Edelmann, P., and Dash, R.G., 2005, Variability of differences between two approaches for determining ground-water discharge and pumpage, including effects and trends, Lower Arkansas River Basin, Southwestern Colorado, 1998-2002: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5063, 47 p. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf fomat, 2 MB)

Troutman, B.M., and Karlinger, M.R., 2003, Regional flood probabilities: Water Resources Research, v. 39, no. 4. (on-line abstract)

Veitzer, S.A., Troutman, B.M., and Gupta, V.K., 2003, Power-law tail probabilities of drainage areas in river basins: Physical Review E, v. 68, no. 1. (on-line abstract)

Drew, L.J., Armstrong, T.R., Karlinger, M.R., and Schuenemeyer, J.J., 2002, Hydrogeologic significance of the correlation between well-yield variography and multiscale bedrock geologic structures: IAMG conference, Cancun, Mexico [proceedings].

Moody, J.A., and Troutman, B.M, 2002, Characterization of the spatial variability of channel morphology: Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, v. 27, no. 12, p. 1251-1266. (on-line abstract)

Troutman, B.M., and Karlinger, M.R., 2001, Characteristics of floods as a spatial process, in Vecchia, A.V., complier, a unified approach to probabilistic risk assessments for earthquakes, floods, landslides, and volcanoes, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 01-324, p. 29-34.

Troutman, B.M., and Over, T.M., 2001, River flow mass exponents with fractal channel network and rainfall: Advances in Water Resources, v. 24 (9-10) p. 967-989. (on-line abstract)

Moody, J.A., and Troutman, B.M., 2000, Quantitative model of the growth of flood plains by vertical accretion: Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, v. 25, p. 115-133. (on-line abstract)

Bossong, C., Karlinger, M.R., Troutman, B.M., and Vecchia, A.V., 1999, Overview and technical and practical aspects of using geostatiscs in hazordous-, toxic-, and radioactive-waste-site investigations, U.S. Geological Survey Water Resources Investigations Report 98-4145. (on-line abstract)

Dash, R.G., Troutman, B.M., and Edelmann, 1999, Comparison of two approaches for determining ground-water discharge and pumpage in the Lower Arkansas River Basin, Colorado, 1997-1998: U.S. Geological Survey Water Resources Investigations Report 99-4221. (on-line summary or on-line report in pdf format)

Drew, L.J., Karlinger, M.R., Armstrong, T.R., and Moore, R.B., 1999, Relations between igneous and metamorphic rock fracture patterns and groundwater yield from the variography of water-well yields, Pinardville guadrangle, New Hampshire: Natural Resources Research, v. 8, no. 2, p. 137-152.

Troutman, B.M., and Vecchia, A.V., 1999, Estimation of Renyi exponents in random cascades, Bernoulli, v. 5, n. 2, p. 191-207.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS PROJECT, CONTACT:
Brent M. Troutman
U.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, ms418, Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, CO
Email: troutman@usgs.gov
Telephone: 303-236-5038

 For information on additional projects in the National Research Program, see Indexes to NRP projects and bibliographies