National Research Program


Geochemistry and Hydroclimatology of Streams and Estuaries

The physical/chemical variability in our rivers and estuaries is large, but causes and interactions are not clearly defined. Variations forced by weather and climate appear to be very important, but we don't yet understand how riverine-esturarine systems operate on very short and moderately long time scales. Furthermore, the effect of anthropogenic activities also may be important. Without such information we cannot understand and predict how these systems respond to variations in climate and human activities including changes in the amount, character, and timing of freshwater, toxic- waste, sediment and plant-nutrient inflows to these environments. Project objectives are to better understand the variability of the physics (circulation) and chemistry (primarily oxygen, carbon, silicon, nitrogen and phosphorous dynamics) in riverine and estuarine environments, and to discriminate between natural variations due to atmospheric/oceanic forcing and human-caused impacts.

REPORTS PUBLISHED 2003-2012

Dettinger, M.D., Ralph, F.M., Hughes, M., Das, T., Neiman, P., Cox, D., Estes, G., Reynolds, D., Hartman, R., Cayan, D., and Jones, L., 2012 (web publication 7/13/11), Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California: Natural Hazards, v. 60, no. 3, p. 1085-1111, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9894-5. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 2.0 MB, published by Springer with open-access)

Hanson, R. T., Flint, L.E.,. Flint, A.L., Dettinger, M.D., Faunt, C.C., Cayan, D., and Schmid, W., 2012, A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes: Water Resources Research, v. 48, W00L08, doi:10.1029/2011WR010774 (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 3182 KB, published by the American Geophysical Union, not subject to U.S. copyright)

Alder, J.R., Hostetler, S.W., Pollard, D. and Schmittner, A. 2011. Evaluation of a present-day climate simulation with a new coupled atmosphere-ocean model GENMOM: Geoscientific Model Development, v. 4, p. 69-83. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-69-2011 (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 12087 KB, Geoscientific Model Development is an Interactive Open Access Journal of the European Geosciences Union)

Burkett, V.R., Taylor, I.L., Belnap, J., Cronin, T.M., Dettinger, M.D., Frazier, E.L., Haines, J.W., Kirtland, D.A., Loveland, T.R., Milly, P.C.D., O'Malley, R., and Thompson, .S., 2011, USGS global change science strategy: A framework for understanding and responding to climate and land-use change: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011-1033, 32 p. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format, 2.28 MB)

Cloern J.E., Knowles N., Brown L.R., Cayan D., Dettinger M.D., Morgan, T.L., Schoellhamer, D.H., Stacey, M.T., van der Wegen, M., Wagner, R.W., and Jassby, A.D., 2011, Projected evolution of California’s San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change. PLoS ONE 6(9): e24465. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0024465. (on-line abstract or on-line journal article in pdf format, 937 KB, PLoS ONE is an open-access journal)

Das, T., Dettinger, M., Cayan, D., and Hidalgo, H., 2011, Potential increase in floods in California’s Sierra Nevada under future climate projections: Climatic Change, v. 109, supplement1, p. 71-94  doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0298-z. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Dettinger, M.D., 2011, Climate change, atmospheric rivers and floods in California - A multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes: Journal of American Water Resources Association, v. 47, p. 514-523. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Dettinger, M.D., 2011, Effects of precipitation and climate on streamflow and temporal variability of nutrient concentrations, in Dubrovsky N.M., Burow, K.R., Clark, G.M., Gronberg, J.M., Hamilton, P.A., Hitt, K.J., Mueller, D.K., Munn, M.D., Nolan, B.T., Puckett, L.J., Rupert, M.G., Short, T.M., Spahr, N.E., Sprague, L.A., and Wilber, W.G., The quality of our nation’s water - Nutrients in the nation’s streams and groundwater, 1992-2004: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1350, p. 38-39. (on-line excerpt from circular in pdf format, 374 KB)

Dettinger, M.D., Ralph, F.M., Das, T., Neiman, P.J., and Cayan, D., 2011, Atmospheric rivers, floods, and the water resources of California: Water, v. 3, no. 2, p. 455-478. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 3128 KB: Water is an open-access journal)

Earman, S., and Dettinger, M.D., 2011, Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater resources - A global review: Journal of Water and Climate Change, v. 2, no. 4, p. 213-229. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Franco, G., Cayan, D.R., Moser, S., Hanemann, M., and Myoung-Ae Jones, M.-A., 2011, Second California Assessment: integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial: Climatic Change, v. 109, supplement 1, p. 1-19. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Hostetler, S.W., Alder, J.R., and Allan, A.M., 2011, Dynamically downscaled climate simulations over North America: Methods, evaluation, and supporting documentation for users: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011-1238, 64 p. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format, 10.8 MB)

Major, D.C., Omojola, A., Dettinger, M., Hanson, R., and Sanchez-Rodriguez, R., 2011, Climate change, water and wastewater in cities, in Rosenzweig, C., Solecki, W., Hammer, S., and Mehrotra, S., eds., Climate Change and Cities--First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network: Cambridge University Press, p.113-143.

National Climate Assessment Planning Workshop Synthesis Team, 2011, Planning regional and sectoral assessments for the National Climate Assessment: National Climate Assessment Report Series, 4, 56 p.

Porter, K, Wein, A, Alpers, C, Baez, A, Barnard, P, Carter, J, Corsi, A, Costner, J, Cox, D, Das, T, Dettinger, M, Done, J, Eadie, C, Eymann, M, Ferris, J, Gunturi, P, Hughes, M, Jarrett, R, Johnson, L, Dam Le-Griffin, H, Mitchell, D, Morman, S, Neiman, P, Olsen, A, Perry, S, Plumlee, G, Ralph, M, Reynolds, D, Rose, A, Schaefer, K, Serakos, J, Siembieda, W, Stock, J, Strong, D, Sue Wing, I, Tang, A, Thomas, P, Topping, K. Wills, C; Jones, L, and Cox, D, 2011, Overview of the ARkStorm scenario: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1312, 183 p. and appendixes. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format, 9.8 MB; plus appendix A, 2 MB, and appendix B, 598 kB)

Ralph, F.M., and Dettinger, M.D., 2011, Storms, Floods, and the Science of Atmospheric Rivers: EOS, v. 92, no. 32, p. 265-266. doi: 10. 1029/2011EO320001

Stahle, D.W., Griffin, R.D., Cleaveland, M.K., Edmondson, J.R., Fye, F.K., Burnette, D.J., Abatzoglou, J.Y., Redmond, K.T., Meko, D.M., Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., and Therrell, M., 2011, A tree-ring reconstruction of the salinity gradient in the northern estuary of San Francisco Bay: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, v. 9, no. 1, 22 p. (on-line paper in pdf format, 7.3 MB; San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science is an open-access journal)

Wagner, W., Stacey, M., Brown, L., and Dettinger, M., 2011, Statistical models of temperature in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under climate-change scenarios and ecological implications: Estuaries and Coasts, v. 34, no. 3, p. 544-556., doi:10. 1007/s12237-010-9369-z. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 595 KB, published by Springer with open access)

Walker, J.F. Hay, L.E., Markstrom, S.L., and Dettinger, M.D., 2011, Characterizing Climate-Change Impacts on the 1.5-yr Flood Flow in Selected Basins across the United States: A Probabilistic Approach: Earth Interactions, v. 15, no. 18, 16 p. doi: 10.1175/2010EI379.1.(on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 2344 KB)

Weber, M.E., Clark, P.U., Ricken,W., Mitrovica, J.X., Hostetler, S.W., and Kuhn, G., 2011, Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the last glacial maximum: Science, v. 334, no. 6060, p. 1265-1269. DOI: 10.1126/science.1209299 (on-line abstract of journal article)

Anslow, F.S., Clark, P.U., Kurz, M.D., and Hostetler, S.W., 2010, Geochronology and paleoclimatic implications of the last deglaciation of the Mauna Kea Ice Cap, Hawaii: Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 297, no. 1-2, p. 234-248. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Bouse, R.M., Fuller, C.C., Luoma, S.N., Hornberger, M.I., Jaffe, B.E., and Smith, R.E., 2010, Mercury-Contaminated Hydraulic Mining Debris in San Francisco Bay: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, v. 8, no. 1, 28 p. (on-line article in pdf format, 786 KB, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science is an open access journal)

Cayan, D.R. Das, T., Pierce, D.W., Barnett, T.P., Tyree, M., and Gershunov, A., 2010,   Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought.: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 107, no. 50, p. 21271-21276. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Gershunov A., Cayan, D., and Retournaz, B., 2010, California Heat Waves with Impacts on Wine Grapes, in Pavia, E.G., Sheinbaum, J., and Candela, J., eds., The Ocean, The Wine, and The Valley: The Lives of Antoine Badan: Lulu Press, p. 205-223, ISBN 978-0-557-94026-4.

Goddard, L., Aithcellouche, Y., Baethgen, W., Dettinger, M., Graham, R., Hayman, P., Kadi, M., Martinez, R., Meinke, H., and Conrad, E., 2010, Providing seasonal-to-interannual climate information for risk management and decision making: Procedia, Environmental Sciences, v. 1, no. 1, p. 81-101. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 787 KB))

Haak, A.L., Williams, J.E., Isaak, D., Todd, A., Muhlfeld, C.C., Kershner, J.L., Gresswell, R.E., Hostetler, S.W., and Neville, H.M., 2010, The potential influence of changing climate on the persistence of salmonids of the inland west: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010–1236, 74 p. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format, 8.7 MB)

Hanson, R.T., Flint, A.L., Flint, L.E., Faunt, C.C., Schmid, W., Dettinger, M.D., Leake, S.A., and Cayan, D.R., 2010 Integrated simulation of consumptive use and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, for the past and for a future subject to urbanization and climate change: IAHS-AISH Publication 339, p. 467-471. (on-line abstract of paper in pdf format)

Maurer, E.P. , Hidalgo, H.G. , Das, T. , Dettinger, M.D. , Cayan, D.R., 2010, The utility of daily large-scale climate data in the assessment of climate change impacts on daily streamflow in California: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, v.14, no. 6, p. 1125-1138. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 1924 KB, published in an open access journal of the European Geosciences Union)

Peterson, C.D., Stock, E., Hart, R., Percy, D., Hostetler, S.W., and Knott, J.R., 2010, Holocene coastal dune fields used as indicators of net littoral transport: West Coast, USA: Geomorphology, v. 116, no. 1-2, 15 p. 115-134. (on-line abstract of journal article

Ralph, F.M., Sukovich, E., Reynolds, D., Dettinger, M., Weagle, S., Clark, W., and Neiman, P.J., 2010, Assessment of extreme quantitative precipitation forecasts and development of regional extreme event thresholds using data from HMT-2006 and COOP observers: Special State of the Science of Precipitation Collection, Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 11, no. 6, p. 1286-1304, doi: 10.1175/2010JHM1232.1. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 2794 KB)

Yoshimura, K., Kanamitsu, M., and Dettinger, M., 2010, Regional downscaling for stable water isotopes: A case study of an atmospheric river event: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 115, D18114, doi:10.1029/2010JD014032 (on-line abstract of journal article)

Brekke, L.D., Maurer, E.P., Anderson, J., Dettinger, M.D., Townsley, E.S., Harrison, A., and Pruitt, T., 2009, Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change: Water Resources Research, W04411, doi:10.1029/2008WR006941. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Carlson, A.E., Clark, P.U., and Hostetler, S.W., 2009, Comment: Radiocarbon deglaciation chronology of the Thunder Bay, Ontario area and implications for ice sheet retreat patterns: Quaternary Science Reviews, v. 28, no. 23-24, p. 2546-2547.

Cayan, D., Tyree, M., Dettinger, M., Hidalgo, H., Das, T., Maurer, E., Bromirski, P., Graham, N., and Flick, R., 2009, Climate change scenarios and sea level rise estimates for California 2009 Climate Change Scenarios Assessment: California Energy Commission Report CEC-500-2009-014-D, 50 p. (on-line report in pdf format, 1851 KB)

Clark, P.U., Dyke, A.S., Shakun, J.D., Carlson, A.E., Clark, J., Wohlfarth, B., Mitrovica, J.X., Hostetler, S.W., and McCabe, A.M., 2009, The last glacial maximum: Science, v. 325, no. 5941, p. 710 - 714. DOI: 10.1126/science.117287 (on-line abstract of journal article)

Das, T., Hidalgo, H.G., Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., Pierce, D.W., Bonfils, C., Barnett, T.P., Bala, G., and Mirin, A., 2009, Structure and detectability of trends in hydrological measures over the Western United States: Journal of Hydrometrology, v.10, no. 4, p. 871-892. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Dettinger, M.D., Hidalgo, H., Das, T., Cayan, D., and Knowles, N.,2009, Projections of potential flood regime changes in California: California Energy Commission Report, CEC-500-2009-050-D, 54 p. (on-line report in pdf format, 1702 KB)

Ersek, V., Hostetler, S.W., Cheng, H., Clark, P.U., Anslow, F.S., Mix, A.C., Edwards, R.L., 2009, Environmental influences on speleothem growth in southwestern Oregon during the last 380 000 years: Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 279, no. 3-4, p. 316-325. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Gershunov, A., Cayan, D.R., and Iacobellis, S.F., 2009, The great 2006 heat wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an increasing trend: Journal of Climate, v. 22, no. 23, p. 6181-6203. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Hidalgo, H.G., Das, T., Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., Pierce, D.W., Barnett, T.P., Bala, G., Mirin, A., Wood, A.W., Bonfils, C., Santer, B.D., and Nozawa, T., 2009, Detection and attribution of streamflow timing changes to climate change in the Western United States: Journal of Climate, v. 22, no. 13, p. 3838-3855. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Hostetler, S.W., 2009, Use of models and observations to assess trends in the 950–2005 water balance and climate of Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon: Water Resources Research, 45:W12409, doi:10.1029/2008WR007295. (on-line abstract or on-line paper in pdf format, 884 KB, published by the American Geophysical Union, not subject to U.S. copyright)

Lundquist, J.D., Dettinger, M., Stewart, I., and Cayan, D., 2009, Variability and trends in spring runoff in the western United States, in Wagner, F. ed., Climate warming in western North America/Evidence and environmental effects: University of Utah Press, p. 63-76,

Miller, N., Cayan, D., Duffy, P., Hidalgo H., Jin, J., Kanamaru, H., Kanamitsu, M., O'Brien,T., Schlegel, N., Sloan, L., Snyder, M., and Yoshimura, K., 2009, An analysis of simulated California climate using multiple dynamical and statistical techniques: California Energy Commission Report, CEC-500-2009-017-D, 35 p. (on-line report in pdf format, 1001 KB)

Nelson, K.C., Palmer, M.A., Pizzuto, J.E., Moglen, G.E., Angermeier, P.L., Hilderbrand, R.H., Dettinger, M., and Hayhoe, K., 2009, Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: From impacts to management options: Journal of Applied Ecology, v. 46, no. 1, p. 154 - 163. (on-line abstract or on-line journal article in pdf format, 700 KB, published by Wiley Interscience with "online open" access.)

White, M.A., de Beurs, K., Didan, K., Inouye, D., Richardson, A., Jensen, O., O’Keefe, J., Zhang, G., Nemani, R., van Leeuwen, W., Brown, J., de Wit, A., Schaepman, M., Lin, X., Dettinger, M., Baily, A., Kimball, J., Schwartz, M., Baldocchi, D., Lee, J., and Lauenroth, W., 2009, Intercomparison, interpretation and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982 to 2006: Global Change Biology, v. 15, no. 10, p. 2335-2359, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01910.x (on-line abstract of journal article)

Anslow, F.S., Hostetler, S., Bidlake, W.R., and Clark, P.U., 2008, Distributed energy balance modeling of South Cascade Glacier, Washington and assessment of model uncertainty: Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 113, doi:10.1029/2007JF000850. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Barnett, T.P., Pierce, D.W., Hidalgo, H.G., Bonfils, C., Santer, B.D., Das, T., Bala, G., Wood, A.W., Nozawa, T., Mirin, A.A., Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, M.D., 2008, Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States: Science, v. 316, p. 1080-1083. (on-line abstract or on-line paper in pdf format, 685 KB)

Bartlein, P.J., Hostetler, S.W., Shafer, S.L., Holman, J.O., and Solomon, A.M., 2008, Temporal and spatial structure in a daily wildfire-start data set from the western United States (1986–96): International Journal of Wildland Fire, v. 17, p. 8–17. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Brekke, L.D., Dettinger, M.D., Maurer, E.P., and Anderson, M., 2008, Significance of model credibility in projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological impacts of climate change: Climatic Change, v. 89, p. 371-394, doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9388-3. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Cayan, D.R., Bromirski, P.D., Hayhoe, K., Tyree, M., Dettinger, M.D., and Flick, R.E., 2008, Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast: Climatic Change, v. 87 (Suppl. 1), p. S57-S73. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Cayan, D.R., Luers, A.L., Franco, G., Hanemann, M., Bart Croes, B., and Vine, E., 2008, Overview of the California climate change scenarios project: Climatic Change, v. 87 (Suppl. 1), p. s1-s6. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Cayan, D.R., Maurer, E.P., Dettinger, M.D., Tyree, M., and Hayhoe, K., 2008, Climate change scenarios for the California region: Climatic Change, v. 87 (Suppl. 1), p. S21-S42. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Coplen, T. B., Neiman, P.J., White, A.B., Landwehr, J.M., Ralph, F.M., and Dettinger, M.D., 2008, Extreme changes in stable hydrogen isotopes and precipitation characteristics in a landfalling Pacific storm: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 35, L21808, doi:10.1029/2008GL035481. (on-line abstract or on-line paper in pdf format, 636 KB, published by American Geophysical Union, not subject to U.S. copyright)

Dettinger, M.D., and Culberson, S., 2008, Internalizing climate change - Scientific resource management and the climate change challenges: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, v. 6, no. 2, 17 p. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 2178 KB, open-access journal

Earman, S., and Dettinger, M., 2008, Monitoring networks for long-term recharge change in the mountains of California and Nevada--A meeting report: California Energy Commission PIER Energy-Related Environmental Research Report CEC-500-2008-006, 32 p. (on-line report in pdf format, 203 KB)

Flint, A.L., Flint, L.E., and Dettinger, M.D., 2008, Modeling soil moisture processes and recharge under a melting snowpack: Vadose Zone Journal, v. 7, p. 350-357, doi:10.2136/vzj2006.0135. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Funk, C., Dettinger, M., Brown, M., Verdin, J., Michaelsen, J., Barlow, M., and Hoell, A., 2008, Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern Africa food security, but could be mitigated by agricultural development: Proceedings, National Academies of Science, 105, doi/10.1073/pnas.0708196105, p. 11081-11086. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 919 KB pubished by the National Academies of Science with open access.

Healey, M., Dettinger, M., and Norgaard, R., eds., 2008, State of the science for the Bay-Delta system -- Summary for policymakers and  the public: CALFED Science Program Report, 19 p. (on-line summary report)

Healey, M., Dettinger, M., and Norgaard, R., eds., 2008, The state of Bay-Delta science, 2008: CALFED Science Program, 174 p. (on-line report information or on-line report in pdf format, 5775 KB)

Hidalgo, H.G., Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.C., 2008, Changes in Aridity in the Western United States: Californa Drought: An Update -- 2008, California Department of Water Resources, State of California, p. 54-59. (on-line report in pdf format, 4148 KB)

Hidalgo, H.G., Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.C., 2008, Downscaling With Constructed Analogues: Daily Precipitation and Temperature Fields Over The United States: California Energy Commission Report CEC-500-2007-123, 62 p. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format, 2200 KB)

Kueppers, L.M., Snyder, M.A., Sloan, L.C., Cayan, D., Jin, J., Kanamaru, H., Kanamitsu, M., Miller, N.L., Tyree, M., Du, H., and Weare, B., 2008, Seasonal temperature responses to land use change in the western United States: Global and Planetary Change, v. 60, no. 3-4, p. 250-264. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Lundquist, J.D., Dettinger, M., Stewart, I., and Cayan, D., 2008, Variability and trends in spring runoff in the western United States, in Waggoner, F., ed., Climate warming in western North America/Evidence and environmental effects: Utah State University Press, Chapter 5.

Mantua, N., Dettinger, M., Pagano, T., Wood, A., Redmond, K., and Restrepo, P., 2008, A description and evaluation of hydrologic and climate forecast and data products that support decision-making for water resources managers, in Beller-Simms, N., Ingram, H., Feldman, D., Mantua, N., Jacobs, K., and Waples, A., Decision-support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational data—A focus on water resources : A report by the US Climate Change Science Program (Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3) and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, chapter 2, p. 29-64. (on-line report in pdf format, 2421 KB; also report Appendices A and B)

Neiman, P.J., Ralph, F.M., Wick, G.A., Lundquist, J.D., and Dettinger, M.D., 2008, Meteorological characteristics and overland precipitation impacts of atmospheric rivers affecting the West Coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 9, no. 1, p. 22-47. (on-line abstract of journal article

Neiman, P.J., Ralph, F.M., Wick, G.A., Kuo, Y.H., Wee, T.K., Ma, Z., Taylor, G.H., and Dettinger, M.D., 2008, Diagnosis of an intense atmospheric river impacting the Pacific Northwest -Storm summary and offshore vertical structure observed with COSMIC satellite retrievals: Monthly Weather Review, v. 136, p. 4398-4420, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2550.1. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 3699 KB)

Peterson, D.H., Stewart, I., and Murphy, F., 2008, Principal hydrologic responses to climatic and geologic variability in the Sierra Nevada, California: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, v. 6, issue 1 (February), article 3, 21 p. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 5955 KB, open access journal)

Reisen, W.K., Barker, C.M., Eldridge, B., Cayan, D., Tyree, M., and Dettinger, M., 2008, Impact of climate variations on mosquito abundance in California: Journal of Vector Ecology, v. 33, p. 89-98. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Taylor, S.V., Cayan, D.R., Graham, N.E, and Georgakakos, K.P., 2008, Northwesterly surface winds over the eastern North Pacific Ocean in Spring and Summer: Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres, v. 113, D02110, doi:10.1029/2006JD008053. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Dettinger, M.D., and Earman, S., 2007, Western ground water and climate change - Pivotal to supply sustainability or vulnerable in its own right?: Ground Water News and Views, Association of Ground Water Scientists and Engineers Newsletter, v. 4, no. 1, p. 4-5. (on-line article in pdf format)

Florsheim, J.L., and Dettinger, M., 2007, Climate and floods still govern California levee breaks: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 34, LL22403, doi:10.1029/2007GL031702 (on-line abstract of journal article)

Knowles, N., Dettinger, M., and Cayan, D., 2007, Trends in Snowfall Versus Rainfall for the Western United States, 1949-2001: California Energy Commission CEC-500-2007-032, 39 p. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format, 880 KB)

Lundquist, J.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2007, Surface temperature patterns in complex terrain: Daily variations and long-term change in the central Sierra Nevada, California: Journal of Geophysical Research., v. 112, D11124, doi:10.1029/2006JD007561. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Malamud-Roam, F., Dettinger, M.D., Ingram, B.L., Hughes, M., and Florsheim, J., 2007, Holocene climates and connections between the San Francisco Bay estuary and its watershed - A review: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, v. 5, no. 1, article 3, 28 p. (on-line abstract and to down-load paper in pdf format, open-access journal)

Maurer, E.P., Stewart, I.T., Bonfils, C., Duffy, P.B., and Cayan, D.R., 2007: Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 112, D11118, doi:10.1029/2006JD008088. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Alfaro, E.J.,Gershunov, A., and Cayan, D.R., 2006, Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the western U.S. - The role of soil moisture and sea surface temperature: Journal of Climate, v. 19, no. 8, p. 1407-1421. (on-line abstract)

Bales, R., Molotch, N., Painter, T., Dettinger, M.D., Rice, R., and Dozier, J., 2006, Mountain hydrology of the western US: Water Resources Research, v. 42, W08432, doi:10.1029/2005WR004387. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Cayan, D.C,  Bromirski, P., Hayhoe, K., Tyree, M., Dettinger, M., and Flick, R., 2006: Projecting Future Sea Level: Climate Action Team Reports to the Governor and Legislature, publication # CEC-500-2005-202-SF, 53 p. (on-line report in pdf format, 1.59 MB)

Cayan, D.C,  Maurer, E., Dettinger, M., Tyree, M., Hayhoe, K. Bonfils, C., Duffy, P., and Santer, B., 2006: Climate Scenarios for California: Climate Action Team Reports to the Governor and Legislature, publication # CEC-500-2005-203-SF, 44 p. (on-line report in pdf format, 1.7 MB)

Cayan, D.C,  M.D. Dettinger, et. al., 2006, Projecting Future Sea Level: Climate Action Team Reports to the Governor and Legislature, publication # CEC-500-2005-202-SF, 53 p. (on-line report in pdf format, 1.9 MB)

CIRMOUNT Executive Committee, 2006, Mapping new terrain -- Report of the Consortium for Integrated Mountain Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT): U.S. Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station (Albany, CA) Miscellaneous Publication PSW-MISC-77, 29 p. (on-line report in pdf format)

Dettinger, M.D., 2006, A component-resampling approach for estimating probability distributions from small forecast ensembles: Climatic Change, v. 76, p. 149-168. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format, 530 KB)

Hanson, R.T., Dettinger, M.D., and Newhouse, M.W., 2006, Relations between climate variability and hydrologic time series from four alluvial basins across the southwestern United States: Hydrogeology Journal, v. 14, p. 1,122-1,146. doi: 10.1007/s10040-006-0067-7(on-line abstract of journal article)

Knowles, N., Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2006, Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the western United States: Journal of Climate, v. 18, p. 4,545-4,559. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Ralph, F.M., Neiman, P.J., Wick, G.A., Gutman, S.I., Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., and White, A.B., 2006, Flooding on California's Russian River: Role of atmospheric rivers: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 33, doi:10.1029/2006GL026689. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Snyder, M., L. Kueppers, L. Sloan, D.Cayan, et al., 2006, Regional Climate effects of the irrigation and urbanization in the western United States: A model Intercomparison. PIER Project Report, CEC-500-2006-031, 35 p. (on-line report in pdf format, 1.7 MB)

Westerling, A.L., H.G. Hidalgo, D.R. Cayan, and T.W. Swetnam, 2006,Warming and earlier spring increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity: Science, 313, 940-943. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Betancourt, J.L., Schwartz, M.D., Breshears, D.D., Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, M.D., Inouye, D.W., Post, E., and Reed, B.C., 2005, Implementing a U.S. national phenology network: Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union, v. 86, p. 539, 542. (on-line report in pdf format, 261 KB)

Bromirski, P.D., Cayan, D.R., and Flick, R.E., 2005: Wave spectral energy variability in the Northeast Pacific: Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, v. 110, C03005, doi:10.1029/2004JC002398. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Burns, J.C., Cayan, D.R., Tong, G., Turner, C.L., Shike, H., Kawasaki, O., Nakamura, Y., Yashiro, M., and Yanagawa, H, 2005: Seasonality and temporal clustering of Kawasaki Syndrome in Japan, 1987-2000: Epidemiology, v. 16, no. 2, p. 220-225. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Cayan, D., Dettinger, M., Stewart, I., and Knowles, N., 2005, Recent changes toward earlier springs---Early signs of climate warming in western North America: Watershed Management Council Networker, Spring 2005, p. 3-7. (on-line article in pdf format)

Cloern, J.E., Schraga, T.S., Lopez, C.B., Knowles, N., Labiosa, R.G., and Dugdale, R., 2005, Climate anomalies generate an exceptional dinoflagellate bloom in San Francisco Bay , Geophysical Research Letters, v. 32, no. 14, L14608, doi:10.1029/2005GL023321. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Dettinger, M.D., 2005, A long-term (50 yr) historical perspective on flood-generating winter storms in the American River basin: Proc. 2005 California Extreme Precipitation Symposium, 62-73. (on-line paper in pdf format)

Dettinger, M.D., 2005, From climate-change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st century California: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, v. 3(1), 14 p. (on-line abstract or on-line paper in pdf format)

Dettinger, M.D., 2005, Changes in streamflow timing in the western United States in recent decades: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2005-3018. (on-line fact sheet in html or on-line fact sheet in pdf format, 739 KB)

Florsheim, J., and Dettinger, M., 2005, Influence of anthropogenic alterations on geomorphic response to climate variations and change in San Francisco Bay-Delta and watershed: Watershed Management Council Networker, Spring 2005, p. 13-16. (on-line article in pdf format)

Hanson, R.T. and Dettinger, M.D., 2005, Ground-water/surface-water responses to global climate simulations, Santa Clara-Calleguas basin, Ventura County, California, 1950-93: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v. 43, p. 517-536. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Hidalgo, H.G., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D., 2005, Sources of variability of evapotranspiration in California: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 6, p. 3-19. (on-line abstract or on-line journal article in pdf format)

Koczot, K.M., Jeton, A.E., McGurk, B., and Dettinger, M.D., 2005, Precipitation-runoff processes in the Feather River basin, northeastern California, with prospects for streamflow predictability: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2004-5202, 82 p.

Lundquist, J.D., and Dettinger, M.D., 2005, How snowpack heterogeneity affects diurnal streamflow timing: Water Resources Research, v. 41, doi:10.1029/2004WR003649. (on-line abstract or on-line journal article in pdf format)

Lundquist, J.D., Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2005, Snow-fed streamflow timing at different basin scales: Case study of the Tuolumne River above Hetch Hetchy, Yosemite, California: Water Resources Research, v. 41, no. 7, W07005, doi:10.1029/2004WR003933 (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format)

Peterson, D.H., Lundquist, J.D., Stewart, I., Knowles, N., Solomon, M and Hager, S.W., 2005, Sierra Nevada Hydroclimatology:  An experimental prediction of maximum daily snowmelt discharge in 2005. (available on-line only, in pdf format).

Peterson, D., Smith, R., Hager, S., Hicke, J., Dettinger, M., and Huber, K., 2005, River chemistry as a monitor of Yosemite Park microclimates : EOS Transactions Americal Geophysical Union, v. 86, p. 285, 288.

Peterson, D.H., Smith, R.E., Stewart, I., Knowles, N., Soulard, C. and Hager, S.W., 2005, Snowmelt Discharge Characteristics, Sierra Nevada, California: U.S. Geological Survey, SIR-2005-5056, 13p. (on-line abstract or on-line publication in pdf format, 2MB; also see errata sheet).

Stewart, I., Cayan, D., and Dettinger, M.D., 2005, Changes towards earlier streamflow timing across western North America: Journal of Climate, v. 18, p. 1,136-1,155. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format)

Alfaro, E., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D., Steinemann, A., Peirce, D., and Barnett, T., 2004, A method for prediction of California summer air surface temperature: Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, v. 85, p. 553, 557-558.

Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., Meyer, M.K., and Jeton, A.E., 2004, Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099: Climatic Change, v. 62, no. 1, p. 283-317. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format)

Dettinger, M.D., Redmond, K.T., and Cayan, D.R., 2004, Winter orographic-precipitation ratios in the Sierra Nevada - Large-scale atmospheric circulations and hydrologic consequences: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 6, p. 1,102-1,116. (on-line abstract or on-line article, in pdf format)

Hanson, R.T., Newhouse, M.W., and Dettinger, M.D., 2004, A methodology to assess relations between climate variability and variations in hydrologic time series in the southwestern United States: Journal of Hydrology, v. 287, p. 252-269. (on-line abstract)

Hayhoe, K., Daniel Cayan, D.R., Field, C.B., Frumhoff, P.C., Maurer, E.P., Miller, N.L., Moser, S.C., Schneider, S.H., Cahill, K.N., Cleland, E.E., Dale, L., Drapek, R., Hanemann, R.M., Kalkstein, L.S.,Lenihan, J., Lunch, C.K., Neilson, R.P., Sheridan, S.C., and Verville, J.H., 2004: Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California: Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, v. 101, no. 34, 12422-1242. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Knowles, N., and Cayan, D., 2004, Elevational dependence of projected hydrologic changes in the San Francisco Estuary and watershed: Climatic Change, v. 62, no. 1, p. 319-336. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format)

Lundquist, J.D., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D., 2004, Spring onset in the Sierra Nevada -- When is snowmelt independent of elevation?: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 5, p. 325-340. (on line abstract or on-line report in pdf format)

National Research Council, 2004, Groundwater Fluxes Across Interfaces: : National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 85 p. (on-line book)

Pagano, T., Pasteris, P., Dettinger, M., Cayan, D., and Redmond, K., 2004, Water year 2004: Western water managers feel the heat: EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union, v. 85, p. 385, 392-393.

Peterson, D., Smith, R., and Hager, S., 2004, A walk through the hydroclimate network in Yosemite National Park: River Chemistry, Sierra Nature Notes, v. 4. (on-line article in pdf format)

Peterson, D., Smith, R., Hager, S., Cayan, D. and Dettinger, M., 2004, Air temperature and snowmelt discharge characteristics, Merced River at Happy Isles, Yosemite National Park, Central Sierra Nevada, Proceedings of the Twentieth Annual Pacific Climate Workshop, p. 53-64. (on-line article)

Peterson, D., Smith, R., Hager, S., Huber, K., Dettinger, M., and DiLeo, J., 2004, Alpine hydroclimatology, exploring the mystery of salinity change in portions of the Stanislaus and Merced Rivers: U.S. Geological Survey Special Interest Publication, 18 p. and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (CAP) California Applications Programs. (on-line article in pdf format)

Schemel, L.E., Sommer, T.R., Muller-Solger, A.B., and Harrell, W.C., 2004, Hydrologic variability, water chemistry, and phytoplankton biomass in a large floodplain of the Sacramento River, CA, U.S.A.: Hydrobiologia, v. 513, p. 129-139. (on-line abstract)

Simpson, J.J., Dettinger, M.D., Gerhke, F., McIntyre, T.J., and Hufford, G.I., 2004, Hydrologic scales, cloud variability, remote sensing and models -- Implications for forecasting snowmelt and streamflow: Weather and Forecasting, v. 19, p. 251-276. (on-line abstract)

Stewart, I., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D., 2004, Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a "Business as usua" climate change scenario: Climatic change, v. 62, no. 1, p. 217-232. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format)

Topping, B.R., Kuwabara, J.S., Marvin-DiPasquale, M.C., Agee, J.L., Kieu, L.H., Flanders, J.R., Parchaso, F., Hager, S.W., Lopez, C.B., and Krabbenhoft, D.P., 2004, Sediment remobilization of mercury in south San Francisco Bay, California: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2004-5196, 27 p. + appendices. (on-line executive summary or on-line report in pdf format, 6.9 MB)

Westerling, A.L., Cayan, D.R., Brown, T.J., Hall, B.L., and Riddle, L.G., 2004, Climate, Santa Ana winds, and autumn wildfires in southern California: EOS, v. 85, p. 289, 296.

Bromirski, P.D., Flick, R.E., and Cayan, D.R., 2003, Storminess variability along the California Coast: 1858-2000: Journal of Climate, v. 16, p. 982-993. (on-line abstract)

Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, MD., Redmond, K.T., McCabe, G.J., Knowles, N., and Peterson, D.H., 2003 The transboundary setting of California's water and hydropower systems - Linkages between the Sierra Nevada, Columbia River, and Colorado River hydroclimates, in Diaz, H.F., and Woodhouse, B., eds., Climate and Transboundary Issues, v. 16.

Cayan, D., VanScoy, M., Dettinger, M.D., and Helly, J., 2003, The wireless watershed at the Santa Margarita Ecological Reserve: Southwest Hydrology, v. 2, no. 5, p. 18-19. (on-line article, in pdf format)

Dettinger, M.D., Bennett, W.A., Cayan, D.R., Florsheim, J., Hughes, M., Ingram, B.L., Jassby, A., Knowles, N., Malamud, F., Peterson, D.H., Redmond, K., and Smith, L., 2003, Climate science issues and needs of the CALFED Bay-Delta Program: American Meteorological Society, 83rd Annual Meeting, Impacts of Water Variability Symposium, Long Beach, CA, 7.11-1 to 7.11-4. (on-line paper, pdf format)

Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2003, Interseasonal covariability of Sierra Nevada streamflow and San Francisco Bay salinity: Journal of Hydrology, v. 277, no. 3-4, p. 164-181. (on-line abstract)

DiLeo, J., Butler, M., Cayan, D., Clow, D., Dettinger, M., Gehvke, F., Hager, S., Lundquist, J., McCurdy, G., Peterson, D., Redmond, K., Riddle, L., Smith, R., and Van Wagtendonk, J., 2003, A Notebook of Hydroclimatology Sites/Activities, Yosemite National Park: U.S. Geological Survey General Interest Publication, 34 p. (on-line report in pdf format)

Gershunov, A., and Cayan, D.R., 2003, Heavy daily precipitation frequency over the contiguous U.S.: Sources of climatic variability and predictability: Journal of Climate, v.16, no. 16, p. 2752–2765. (on-line abstract)

Lundquist, J.D., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D., 2003, Meteorology and hydrology in Yosemite National Park: A sensor network application, in Zhao, F., and Guibas, L., eds., Information Processing in Sensor Networks: Springer-Verlag, p. 518-528.

Lundquist, J.D., and Dettinger, M.D., 2003, Linking diurnal cycles in river flow to interannual variations in climate: American Meteorological Society, 83rd Annual Meeting, 17th Conference on Hydrology, Long Beach, CA, J2.4-1 to J2.4-5.

Peterson, D., Smith, R., Hager, S., Huber, K., Dettinger, M., and DiLeo, J., 2003, Alpine hydroclimatology, exploring the mastery of salinity change in portions of the Stanislous and Merced Rivers, U.S. Geological Survey Special Interest Publication, 18 p. and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (CAP) California Applications Programs. (on-line report in pdf format)

Schemel, L.E., Brown, R.L., and Bell, N.W., 2003, Salinity and temperature in South San Francisco Bay, California, at Dumbarton Bridge: Results from the 1999-2002 water years and an overview of previous data: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations 03-4005, 32 p. (on-line abstract or on-line pdf file, 0.7MB)

Smith, R.E., Foxgrover, A., and Smith, P.E., 2003, Suisun Bay and Delta Bathymetry—Production of a 10m Grid: U.S. Geological Survey Interactive Web Publication, based on a poster presented at the CALFED Science Conference, Sacramento, California, January 2003.

Westerling, A.L., Gershunov, A., Brown, T.J., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D., 2003, Climate and wildfire in the western United States: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, May 2003, p. 595-604. (on-line abstract)

White, W.B., Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2003, Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 108, no.C8, 4-1 to 4-15, doi:10.1029/2002JC001396. (on-line abstract)

White, W.B., Tourre, Y.M., Barlow, M., and Dettinger, M., 2003, A delayed action oscillator shared by biennial, interannual, and decadal signals in the Pacific Basin: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 108, no. C3, p. 15. (on-line abstract)


For bibliographic citations by Steven Hostetler prior to 2008, see his list of earlier publications

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS PROJECT, CONTACT
David H. Peterson
U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Rd, MS496, Menlo Park, CA 94025
Email: dhpete@usgs.gov
Telephone: 650-329-4525

Daniel R. Cayan
Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Room 0224, La Jolla, CA 92093
Email: drcayon@usgs.gov
Telephone: 619-534-4507

Michael Dettinger
Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Room 0224, La Jolla, CA 92093
Email: mddettin@usgs.gov
Telephone: 858-822-1507

Steven W. Hostetler
104 Wilkenson Hall, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331
Email: swhostet@usgs.gov
Telephone: 541-737-8928

Fred Murphy
U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Rd, MS 496, Menlo Park, CA 94025
Email: fmurphy@usgs.gov
Telephone: 650-329-4696

For information on additional projects in the National Research Program, see Indexes to NRP projects and bibliographies.

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