National Research Program


Hydro-climatic Processes and Hazards

Patterns displayed by climate forcings and hydrologic responses may be overlooked at a local scale and the co-variation of precipitation, temperature and other atmospheric conditions may not be evident until viewed from a regional spatial scale. The appraisal and management of the Nation's water resources requires the extraction of as much order and predictability from hydro-climate data as possible and thus requires a regional perspective. Temporal climate variations result from a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological processes, including chaotic or near-chaotic fluid dynamics, complex radiative and thermodynamic processes, tropical/extra-tropical interactions, ocean-air interactions, and the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric influences. Understanding the Nation's hydro-climate, water resources, and water-related hazards requires improved understanding and integration of these processes and interactions into interpretations and procedures. The primary objectives of this project are to identify (1) climatologically induced relations within the Nation's hydrologic and water resources system, (2) recurring hydro-climatological patterns and climatologically imposed limits on hydrologic and water resources systems, (3) conditions leading to climatological extremes and resultant hydrologic hazards, and (4) regional and global climatic precursors of hydrologic events and hazards. Also see Hydro-Climatic Processes and Hazards

REPORTS PUBLISHED 2003-2012

McCabe, G.J., Ault, T.R., Cook, B.I., Betancourt, J.L., and Schwartz, M.D. , in press (web publication 11/15/11) Influences of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the timing of North American spring: International Journal of Climatology. (on-line abstract of preprint)

McCabe, G.J. and Wolock, D.M., 2011, Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model: International Journal of Climatology, v. 31, no. 12, p. 1739-1748. doi: 10.1002/joc.2198 (on-line abstract of journal article).

McCabe, G.J. and Wolock, D.M., 2011, Independent effects of temperature and precipitation on modeled runoff in the conterminous United States: Water Resources Research, v. 47, W11522, doi:10.1029/2011WR010630 (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 5517 KB, published by the American Geophysical Union, not suject to U.S copyright)

Gangopadhyay, S., and McCabe, G.J., 2010, Predicting regime shifts in flow of the Colorado River: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 37, no. 20, L20706, doi:10.1029/2010GL044513 . (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 473 KB,, published by the American Geophysical Union, not subject to U.S. copyright.)

Gray, S.T., and McCabe, G.J., 2010, A combined water balance and tree-ring approach to understanding the potential hydrologic effects of climate change in the Central Rocky Mountain Region: Water Resources Research, v. 46, W05513 doi:10.1029/2008WR007650 (on-line abstract of journal article)

Hay, L.E., and McCabe, G.J., 2010, Hydrologic Effects of Climate Change on the Yukon River Basin: Climatic Change, v. 100, no. 3-4, p. 509-523. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 1.1 MB, published by Springer with U.S. Government copyright)

McCabe, G.J., Legates, D.R., and Lins, H.F., 2010, Variability and trends in dry day frequency and dry event length in the southwestern United States: Journal of Geophyscial Research – Atmospheres, 115, D07108, doi:10.1029/2009JD012866. (on-line abstract of journal article)

McCabe, G.J., and Wolock, D.M., 2010, Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters: Climatic Change, v. 99, no. 1, p. 141-153. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Apipattanavis, S., McCabe, G.J., Rajagopalan, B., and Gangopadhyay, S., 2009, Joint Spatiotemporal Variability of Global Sea Surface Temperatures and Global Palmer Drought Severity Index Values: Journal of Climate, v. 22, no. 23, p. 6251-6267. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Hay, L.E., McCabe, G.J., Clark, M.P., Risley, J.C., 2009, Reducing streamflow forecast uncertainty: Application and qualitative assessment of the upper Klamath River basin, Oregon: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v. 45, no. 3, p. 580-596. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Hay, L.E., and McCabe, G.J., 2008. Hydrologic effects of climate change in the Yukon River Basin: Proceedings of the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008, Amercian Society of Civil Engineers. (on-line abstract)

McCabe, G.J., Betancourt, J.L., Gray, S.T., Palecki, M. A., Hidalgo, H.G., 2008, Associations of multi-decadal sea-surface temperature variability with U.S. drought: Quaternary International, v. 188, p. 31-40. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2007.07.001. (on-line abstract of journal article)

McCabe, G.J., and Wolock, D.M., 2008, Joint Variability of Global Runoff and Global Sea-Surface Temperatures: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 9, p. 816-824. (on-line abstract or on-line article, 1.44 MB, published by the American Meterological Society as a U.S. government work in the public domain)

McCabe, G.J., and Wolock, D.M., 2008. Warming and impications for water supply in the Colorado River Basin: Proceedings of the World Environmental and Water Congress 2008 , Amercian Society of Civil Engineers. (on-line abstract)

McCabe, G., Betancourt, J.L., Hidalgo, H.G. 2007, Associations of decadal to multidecadal sea-surface temperature variability with Upper Colorado River flow: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v. 43, no. 1, p. 183–192. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2007.00015.x (on-line abstract of journal article)

McCabe, G.J., Clark, M.P. and Hay, L.E., 2007,. Rain-on-snow events in the western United States: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v. 88, no. 3, p. 319-328. (on-line abstract or on-line article, in pdf format, 3.41 MB, published by the American Meteorological Society with open access)

McCabe, G.J., and Markstorn, S.L., 2007, A Monthly Water-Balance Model Driven By a Graphical User Interface: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File report 2007-1088, 6 p. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format, 596 KB)

McCabe, G.J., Palecki, M.A., and Betancourt, J.L., 2007, Ocean influenences on multi-decadal drought frequency in the conterminous United States: Proceedings of the Pacific Climate, (PACLIM) workshop, p. 69-73.

McCabe, G.J., and Wolock, D.M., 2007, Warming may create substantial water supply shortages in the Colorado River basin: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 34, L22708, doi:10.1029/2007GL031764. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 182 KB, published by the American Geophysical Union, not subject to U.S. copyright)

McCabe, G.J., and Hay, L.E., 2006. Hydroclimatic aspects of the Upper Klamath River Basin: Proceedings of the 3rd Federal Hydrologic Modeling Conference, Reno, Nevada, April 2-6, 2006, published as a CD-ROM.

Clark, M.P., Slater, A.G., Barrett, A.P., Hay, L.E., McCabe, G.J., Rajagopalan, B., and Leavesley, G.H., 2006, Assimilation of snow covered area information into hydrologic and land-surface models: Advances in Water Resouces, v. 29, p. 1209-1221. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Dyurgerov, M., and McCabe, G.J., 2006. Associations between accelerated glacier mass wastage and increased summer temperature: Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research. v. 38, no. 2, p. 190-197. (on-line abstract of journal article)

McCabe, G.J., and Clark, M.P., 2006, Shifting covariability of North American summer monsoon precipitation with antecedent winter precipitation: International Journal of Climatology, v. 26, no. 8, p. 991-999. (on-line abstract of journal article)

McCabe, G.J., and Palaecki, M.A., 2006, Multidecadal climate variability of global lands and oceans: International Journal of Climatology, v. 26, no. 7, p. 849-865. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Battaglin, W., Hay, L., McCabe, G., Nanjappa, P., and Gallant, A.L., 2005, Climate patterns as predictors of amphibian species richness and indicators of potential stress: Alytes, v., 22, no. 3-4, p. 145-167.

Legates, D.R., Lins, H.F., and McCabe, G.J., 2005, Comments on "Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming" by Labat and others: Advances in Water Resouces, v 28, no. 12, p. 1310-1315. (on-line abstract)

Legates, D.R., and McCabe, G.J., 2005, A re-evaluation of the average annual global water balance: Physical Geography, v. 26, p. 467-479. (on-line abstract of journal article)

McCabe, G.J., and Clark, M.P., 2005, Trends and variability in snowmelt runoff in the western United States: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 6, no. 4, p. 476-482. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Webb, R.H., Hereford, Richard, and McCabe, G.J., 2005, Climatic fluctuations, drought, and flow in the Colorado River, in Gloss, S.P., Lovich, J.E., and Melis, T.S., eds., The State of the Colorado River Ecosystem in Grand Canyon: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1282, p. 59-69. (on-line article in pdf format)

McCabe, G.J., and Bunnell, J., 2004. Precipitation and the Occurrence of Lyme Disease in the Northeastern United States: Vector Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, v. 4, no. 2, p.143-148. (on-line abstract of journal article)

McCabe, G.J., Palecki, M.A., and Betancourt, J.L., 2004, Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, v. 101, p. 4,136-4,141. (on-line abstract or on-line publication in pdf format)

Webb, R.H., McCabe, G.J., Hereford, R., and Wilkowske, C., 2004, Climatic fluctuations, drought, and flow on the Colorado River: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 3062-04. (on-line fact sheet)

Cayan, D., Dettinger, M., Redmond, K., McCabe, G., Knowles, N., and Peterson, D., 2003, The transboundary setting of California's water and hydropower systems - linkages between the Sierra Nevada, Columbia River, and Colorado River Hydroclimates, in Diaz, H.F., and Woodhouse, B., eds., Climate and Water - Transboundary Challenges in the Americas: Kluwer Academic Publishers, Advances in Global Change Research series, v. 16.

Clark, M.P., Hay, L.E., McCabe, G.J., Leavesley, G.H., Serreze, M.C., and Wilby, R.L., 2003, The use of weather and climate information in forecasting water supply in the western United States, in Lewis, W.M., ed., Water and Climate in the Western United States: University of Colorado Press, Boulder, Colorado, p. 69-92.

McCabe, G.J., and Wolock, D.M., 2003, Is streamflow increasing in the conterminous United States?: Proceedings of the 19th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop, Pacific Grove, California, March 2002, p. 93-98.

Meier, M., Dyurgerov, M., and McCabe, G.J., 2003, The health of glaciers - recent changes in glacier regime: Climatic Change: v. 59, p. 123-135. (on-line abstract)

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS PROJECT, CONTACT:
Gregory J. McCabe
U.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, ms412, Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, CO
Email: gmccabe@usgs.gov
Telephone: 303-236-7278

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