National Research Program


Precipitation-Runoff Modeling of Watershed Systems

Modeling of watershed response to normal and extreme climatic conditions or to changes in the physical conditions of a watershed requires the simulation of a variety of complex hydrologic processes and process interactions. Some of these processes are well understood at a point or for a small area; others are poorly understood at all scales. Increasing spatial and temporal variability in climate and watershed characteristics with an increase in watershed area adds significantly to the degree of difficulty in investigating and understanding these processes. Research is needed to better define these processes and to develop techniques to simulate these processes and their interactions at all watershed scales. Project objectives are to investigate watershed hydrologic processes and processes interactions to (1) Improve understanding of watershed system dynamic; (2) develop computer models to simulate and evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on streamflow, sediment yield, and other hydrologic components; and (3) develop procedures and techniques to estimate model parameters using measurable watershed and climatic characteristics. A GIS grapical-user-interface to be used in watershed modeling. for the development of Parameter Inputs for Watershed Modeling, and the Modular Modeling System, a framework which allows the model user to selectively couple to selectively couple the most appropriate process algorithms from applicable models to create an "optimal" model, see project's home page.

REPORTS PUBLISHED 2002-2006

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Hwang, Y., Clark, M., Rajagopalan, B., and Leavesley, G., 2012 (web publication 7/6/11), Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, v. 26, no. 2, p. 295-320. DOI: 10.1007/s00477-011-0509-1 (on-line abstract of journal article)

Koczot, K.M., Markstrom, S.L., and Hay, L.E., in press, Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change: Earth Interactions. (on-line abstract of preprint)

Battaglin, W., Hay, L., and Markstrom, S., 2011., Simulating the Potential Effects of Climate Change in Two Colorado Basins and at Two Colorado Ski Areas: Earth Interactions, v. 15, no. 22, 23 p. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Hay, L.E., Markstrom, S.L., and Ward-Garrison, C., 2011, Watershed-Scale Response to Climate Change through the Twenty-First Century for Selected Basins across the United States: Earth Interactions, v. 15, no. 17, 37 p. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Risley, J., Moradkhani, H., Hay, L., and Markstrom, S., 2011, Statistical Comparisons of Watershed-Scale Response to Climate Change in Selected Basins across the United States: Earth Interactions, v. 15, no. 14, 26 p. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Viger, R.J., Hay, L.E., Markstrom, S.L., Jones, J.W., and Buell, G.R., 2011, Hydrologic Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on the Flint River Basin, Georgia: Earth Interactions, v. 15, no. 20, 25 p. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Walker, J.F. Hay, L.E., Markstrom, S.L., and Dettinger, M.D., 2011, Characterizing Climate-Change Impacts on the 1.5-yr Flood Flow in Selected Basins across the United States: A Probabilistic Approach: Earth Interactions, v. 15, no. 18, 16 p. doi: 10.1175/2010EI379.1.(on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 2344 KB)

Breuer, L., Huisman, J.A., Willems, P., Bormann, H., Bronstert, A., Croke, B.F.W., Frede, H.-G., Gräff, T., Hubrechts, L., Jakeman, A.J., Kite, G., Lanini, J., Leavesley, G., Lettenmaier, D.P.,. Lindström, G., Seibert, J., Sivapalan, M., and Viney, N.R., 2009, Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use: Advances in Water Resources, v. 32, no. 2, p. 129-146. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Huisman, J.A., Breuer, L., Bormann, H., Bronstert, A., Croke, B.F.W., Frede, H.-G., Gräff, T., Hubrechts, L., Jakeman, A.J., Kite, G., Lanini, J., Leavesley, G., Lettenmaier, D.P., Lindström, G., Seibert, J., Sivapalan, M., Viney, N.R., and Willems, P., 2009, Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis: Advances in Water Resources, v. 32, no. 2, p. 159-170. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Viney, N.R., Bormann, H., Breuer, L., Bronstert, A., Croke, B.F.W., Frede, H., Gräff, T., Hubrechts, L., Huisman, J.A., Jakeman, A.J., Kite, G.W., Lanini, J., Leavesley, G., Lettenmaier, D.P., Lindström, G., Seibert, J., Sivapalan, M., and Willems, P., 2009, Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions: Advances in Water Resources, v. 32, no. 2, p. 147-158. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Halm, D.R., Beaver, L.D., Leavesley, G.H., and Reddy, M.M., 2009, Meteorological Data near Rabbit Ears Pass, Colorado, U.S.A., 1984 – 2008: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 415, 2 p. (on-line abstract and to download data or on-line report in pdf format, 6.9 MB)

Rizzoli, A.E., Leavesley, G., Ascough II, J.C., Argent, R.M., Athanasiadis, I.N., Brilhante, V., Claeys, F.H.A., Davidb, O., Donatellig, M., Gijsbersh, P., Havliki, D., Kassahunj, A., Krausek, P.,. Quinnl, N.W.T., Scholtenm, H.,. Sojdan, R.S., and Villa, F., 2008, Chapter Seven Integrated Modelling Frameworks for Environmental Assessment and Decision Support, in Jakeman, A.J.,. Voinov, A.A.,. Rizzoli A.E., and Chen, S.H., eds., Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment: Elsevier, v. 3, p. 101-118. (on-line abstract of chapter)

Viger, R.J., and Leavesley, G.H., 2007, The GIS Weasel User's Manual: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Book 6, chap. B4, 201 p. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format, 15 MB)

Clark, M.P., Slater, A.G., Barrett, A.P., Hay, L.E., McCabe, G.J., Rajagopalan, B., and Leavesley, G.H., 2006, Assimilation of snow covered area information into hydrologic and land-surface models: Advances in Water Resouces, v. 29, p. 1209-1221. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Dressler, K.A., Leavesley, G.H., Bales, R.C., and Fassnacht, S.R., 2006, Evaluation of gridded snow water equivalent and satellite snow cover products for mountain basins in a hydrologic model: Hydrological Processes, v. 20, no. 4, p. 673-688. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Duan, Q., Schaake, J., Andreassian, V., Franks, S., Goteti, G., Gupta, H.V., Gusev, Y.M., Habets, F., Hall, A., Hay, L., Hogue, T., Huang, M., Leavesley, G., Liang, X., Nasonova, O.N., Noilhan, J., Oudin, L., Sorooshian, S., Wagener, T., and Wood, E.F., 2006, Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): An overview of science strategy and major results from the second and third workshops: Journal of Hydrology, v. 320, no. 1-2, p. 3-17. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Gellis, A.C., Webb, R.M.T., McIntyre, S.C., and Wolfe, W.J., 2006, Land-use effects on erosion, sediment yields, and reservoir sedimentation: A case study in the Lago Loíza Basin, Puerto Rico: Physical Geography, v. 27, no.1, p. 39-69. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Hay, L.E. , M.P. Clark, M. Pagowski, G.H. Leavesley, and W.J. Gutowski, Jr., 2006, One-way coupling of an atmospheric and a hydrologic model in Colorado: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 7, no. 4, p. 569-589. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Hay, L.E., Leavesley, G.H., and Clark, M.P., 2006, Use of remotely-sensed snow covered area in watershed model calibration for the Sprague River, Oregon: Joint 8th Federal Interagency Sedimentation Conference and 3rd Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference, April 2-6, 2006, Reno, Nevada

Hay, L.E. , Leavesley, G.H., Clark, M.P., Markstrom, S.L., Viger, R.J., and Umemoto, M., 2006, Step-wise, multiple-objective calibration of a hydrologic model for a snowmelt-dominated basin: Journal of American Water Resources, v. 42, no. 4, p. 877-890. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Hay, L.E. and Umemoto, M., 2006, Multiple-objective step-wise calibration using Luca; U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 2006-1323. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format, 787 KB)

Linard, J.I., Wolock, D.M., Webb, R.M.T., and WieczorekM.E., 2006, Precipitation-runoff modeling to compare hydrologic processes governing solute transport in an agricultural watershed in Maryland. Proceedings of the 3rd Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference, Reno, Nevada, April 2-6, 2006, ISBN 0-9779007-0-3.

Markstrom, S.L., Regan, R.S., Niswonger, R.G., and Prudic, D.E., 2006, GSFLOW - A basin-scale model for coupled simulation of ground-water and surface-water flow - Part A. Concepts for modeling surface-water flow with the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model: Proceedings of the 3rd Federal Hydrologic Modeling Conference, Reno, Nevada, April 2-6, 2006.

McCabe, G.J., and Hay, L.E., 2006. Hydroclimatic aspects of the Upper Klamath River Basin: Proceedings of the 3rd Federal Hydrologic Modeling Conference, Reno, Nevada, April 2-6, 2006, published as a CD-ROM.

Niswonger, R.G., and Prudic, D.E., Markstrom, S.L., and Regan, R.S., 2006, GSFLOW - A basin-scale model for coupled simulation of ground-water and surface-water flow - Part B. Concepts for modeling ground-water flow with the U.S. Geological Survey MODFLOW model: Proceedings of the 3rd Federal Hydrologic Modeling Conference, Reno, Nevada, April 2-6, 2006.

Peters N.E., Shanley, J.B., Aulenbach, B.T., Webb, R.M., Campbell, D.H., Hunt, R., Larsen, M.C., Stallard, R.F., Troester, J., and Walker, J.F., 2006, Water and solute mass balance of five small, relatively undisturbed watersheds in the U.S.: Science of the Total Environment, v. 358, p. 221- 242. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Risley, J., and Hay, L.E., 2006, eds. Joint 8th Federal Interagency Sedimentation Conference and 3rd Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference, April 2-6, 2006, Reno, Nevada.

Umemoto, M., Hay, L.E., Markstrom, S.L., and Leavesley, G.H., 2006, Luca: a wizard style GUI for easy and systematic multi-objective, step-wise calibration of Hydrologic models. Joint 8th Federal Interagency Sedimentation Conference abd 3rd Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference, April 2-6, 2006, Reno, Nevada.

Viger, R.J., and Leavesley, G.H., 2006, The GIS Weasel User's Manual: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, Book 6, Chapt. B4, 201 p. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format, 15 MB)

Webb, R.M.T., Linard, J.I., and Wieczorek, M.E., 2006, The Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD): A TOPMODEL Application Developed Within the Modular Modeling System: Proceedings of the 3rd Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference, Reno, Nevada, April 2-6, 2006, ISBN 0-9779007-0-3. (on-line paper in pdf format, 76 KB)

Battaglin, W., Hay, L., McCabe, G., Nanjappa, P., and Gallant, A.L., 2005, Climate patterns as predictors of amphibian species richness and indicators of potential stress: Alytes, v., 22, no. 3-4, p. 146-167.

Gibson, C.A., Meyer, J.L., Poff, N.L., Hay, L.E., and Georgakakos, A., 2005, Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: implications for freshwater ecosystems: River Research and Applications, v. 21, p. 849-864. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Leavesley, G.H., 2005, Rainfall-runoff modeling for integrated basin management, in Anderson, M.G., ed., Encylopedia of Hydrological Sciences: J.W. Wiley.

Leavesley, G.H., Markstrom, S.L., Viger, R.J., and Hay, L.E., 2005, USGS Modular Modeling System (MMS) - Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) MMS-PRMS, in Singh, V., and Frevert, D., eds., Watershed Models: Boca Raton, FL, CRC Press, p. 159-177.

Mennis, J., Viger, R., and Tomlin, C.D., 2005, Cubic map algebra functions for spatio-temporal analysis: Cartography and Geographic Information Science, v. 32, no. 1, p. 17-32. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Warne, A.G., Webb, R.M.T., and Larsen, M.C., 2005, Water, Sediment, and Nutrient Discharge Characteristics of Rivers in Puerto Rico, and their Potential Influence on Coral Reefs: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5206, 58 p. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format, 6.9MB)

Clark, M.P., and Hay, L.E., 2004, Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction output to produce forecasts of stream flow: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 5, no. 1, p. 15-32. (on-line abstract)

Clark, M.P., Gangopadhyay, S., Hay, L.E., Rajagopalan, B., and Wilby, R., 2004, The Schaake shuffle - a method for reconstructing space-time variability in forecasted precipitation and temperature fields: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 5, no. 1, p. 243-262. (on-line abstract)

Clark, M.P., Gangopadhyay, S., Brandon, D., Werner, K., Hay, L., Rajagopalan, B., and Yates, D., 2004, A resampling procedure for generating conditioned daily weather sequences: Water Resources Research, v. 40, no. 4. (on-line abstract)

Hill. M.C.,and Leavesley, G.H., 2004, USGS overview of research activities for evaluating uncertainty, in Nicholson, T.J., Babendreier, J.E., Meyer, P.D., Mohanty, S., Hicks, B.B., and Leavesley, G.H., eds., 2004, Proceedings of the International Workshop on Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Parameter Estimation for Multimedia Environmenal Modeling, August 19-21, 2003: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission CP-0187, US Army Corps of Engineers Engineer Research and Development Center SR-04-2, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 600/R-04/117, p. 19-20.

Nicholson, T.J., Babendreier, J.E., Meyer, P.D., Mohanty, S., Hicks, B.B., and Leavesley, G.H., eds., 2004, Proceedings of the International Workshop on Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Parameter Estimation for Multimedia Environmenal Modeling, August 19-21, 2003: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission CP-0187, US Army Corps of Engineers Engineer Research and Development Center SR-04-2, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 600/R-04/117, (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format, 5.62 MB)

Viger, R.J., 2004, GEOLEM: Improving the Integration of Geographic Information in Environmental Modeling Through Semantic Interoperability: Boulder, University of Colorado, Master's thesis, 135 p.

Peters, N.E., Shanley, J.B., Aulenbach, B.T and Webb, R.M. 2004, Processes affecting the mass balance of five small, relatively pristine watersheds in the USA, in Wanty, R.B., and Seal, R.R., II, eds., Water-Rock Interaction, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Symposium on Water-Rock Interaction, Saratoga Springs, New York, July 2004: New York, A.A. Balkema, p. 1371-1374.

Clow, D.W., Schrott, L., Webb, R., Campbell, D.H., Torizzo, A., and Dornblaser, M., 2003, Groundwater occurrence and contributions to streamflow in an alpine catchment, Colorado Front Range: Ground Water, v. 41, no. 7, p. 937-950. (on-line abstract)

Hay, L.E., and Clark, M.P., 2003, Use of a statistically and dynamically downscaled atmospheric model output for hydrologic simulations in three mountainous basins in the western United States: Journal of Hydrology, v. 482, p. 56-75. (on-line abstract)

Leavesley, G.H., Hay, L.E., Viger, R.J., and Markstrom, S.L., 2003, Use of a priori parameter-estimation methods to constrain calibration of distributed-parameter models: in Duan, Q., Gupta, H.V., Sorooshian, S., Rousseau, A.N., and Turcotte, eds., Calibration of Watershed Models, Water, Science and Application 6, American Geophysical Union, p. 255-266.

Webb, R.M.T., Peters, N.J., Aulenbach, B.T., and Shanley, J.B., 2003, Relations between Hydrology and Solute Fluxes at the Five Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budget (WEBB) Watersheds of the United States Geological Survey, in Renard, K.G., McElroy, S.A., Gburek, W.J., Canfield, H.E., and Scott, R.L., eds. 2003. First Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds, October 27-30, 2003: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, p. 332-339 (on-line report , 277 KB pdf format)

David, O., Markstrom, S. L., Rojas, K. W., Ahuja, L. R., and Schneider, I. W., 2002, The Object Modeling System, in Ahuja, L.R., Ma, L., and Howell, T.A., Agricultural System Models in Field Research and Technology Transfer, CRC Press, Chapter 15.

Hay, L., Clark, M.P., Wilby, R.L., Gutowski, Jr., W.J., Leavesley, G.H., Pan, Z., Arritt, R.W., and Takle. E.S., 2002, Use of regional climate model output for hydrologic simulations: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 3, no. 5 p. 571-590. (on-line abstract)

Hay, L.E., and McCabe, G.J., 2002, Spatial variability in water-balance model performance in the conterminous United States: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v. 38, no. 3, p. 847-860. (on-line abstract)

Leavesley, G.H., 2002, The Devils Lake basin wetlands model, in Vining, K., Simulation of streamflow and wetlands storage, Starkweather Coulee subbasin, North Dakota, water years 1981-98: U.S. Geological SurveyWater-Resources Investigations Report 02-4113, p. 26-28.

Leavesley, G.H., and Frevert, D., 2002, eds., Proceedings of the second Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference, Las Vegas, NV (CD-rom).

Leavesley, G.H., Markstrom, S.L., Restrepo, P.J., and Viger, R.J., 2002, A modular approach to addressing model design, scale and parameter estimation issues in distributed hydrological modeling: Hydrological Processes, v. 16, p. 173-187. (on-line abstract)

Leavesley, G.H., Markstrom, S.L., Viger, R.J., Coffelt, J.L., and Livingston, R.K., 2002, A decision support system for impact analysis of wildland fires: U. S. Geological Survey Open-File Report: 02-0011, p. 86.

Markstrom, S.L., McCabe, G., and David, O., 2002, Web-based distribution of geo-ccientific models: Computers & Geosciences, v. 28, p. 577-581. (on-line abstract)


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS PROJECT, CONTACT:
George Leavesley, Scientist Emeritus
U.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, ms412, Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, CO
Email: george@usgs.gov
Telephone: 303-236-5026

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